By: Barrister Sara Ali Syed
Pakistan’s wheat crisis is not simply a matter of rising flour prices or the proposed import of one million tons of wheat. It reflects deeper problems in agricultural policy, including weak procurement, rising production costs, inconsistent government decisions, institutional fragmentation and the absence of a coherent long-term food-security strategy.
Pakistan has fertile land, an extensive irrigation network, agricultural universities, research institutions and millions of experienced farmers. Yet the country is once again looking towards international markets to secure one of its most important food staples. This raises a fundamental question: how did a country that produced 31.43 million tons of wheat in 2023-24 reach a point where it is preparing to import wheat while consumers face sharply higher prices?
Punjab and Sindh, the country’s major wheat-producing provinces, have recently shown uncertainty over their requirements for imported wheat. Punjab had set a procurement target of three million tons but reportedly purchased only around 500,000 tons from farmers. This represented a shortfall of more than 83 percent. The province subsequently received wheat from federal stocks, highlighting serious weaknesses in procurement planning.
Sindh had earlier sought 720,000 tons, including imported wheat, but later showed reluctance to take the imported commodity. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, meanwhile, maintained its demand for 400,000 tons, including both imported and locally procured wheat. Such policy reversals demonstrate the lack of a coordinated national approach to food security.
The consumer is already bearing the consequences. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the average price of wheat flour increased from Rs75 to Rs132.5 per kilogram, representing a rise of around 77.5 percent year-on-year. For ordinary households, wheat flour is not an optional commodity. It is a basic necessity, meaning such an increase directly reduces purchasing power and adds to inflationary pressure.
Farmers Cannot Carry Food Security Alone
The economics of wheat production provides another important part of the explanation. Farmers face rising costs for fertiliser, diesel, electricity, irrigation, seed, pesticides, labour and machinery. At the same time, they remain uncertain about whether their crops will be purchased and what price they will receive.
The state cannot expect farmers to guarantee national food security without guaranteeing the economic viability of farming. Farmers need predictable procurement, transparent pricing, timely payments, affordable inputs and reliable markets.
There is a legitimate role for strategic wheat imports. Pakistan remains vulnerable to floods, droughts, climate change, international price fluctuations and other supply shocks. Maintaining adequate strategic reserves is therefore essential. However, imports should supplement domestic production rather than compensate for failures in procurement and agricultural planning.
The reported price structure also deserves careful examination. The government is supplying wheat to provinces at Rs4,150 per 40 kilograms, reportedly Rs650 higher than the price offered to farmers. Policymakers must determine whether farmers are receiving a price that adequately covers production costs and provides a reasonable return.
A National Food Security Challenge
The proposed import programme also highlights institutional weaknesses. Under the proposed framework, provincial governments would be responsible for commitments and payments, while the Trading Corporation of Pakistan would serve as the importing agency. The Food Ministry would coordinate the process. Such arrangements require clear responsibilities, timely approvals, foreign-exchange arrangements and effective coordination among federal and provincial institutions.
A national food-security system should not reach this stage without clear answers about procurement, stocks, consumption requirements and future supply.
Pakistan’s agricultural problems are structural. Farmers face rising input costs, weak procurement systems, inefficient water management, inadequate research-to-farm linkages and increasing climate risks. Floods, droughts, extreme temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are making agricultural planning even more difficult.
These problems also have wider economic consequences. When domestic production falls, the government must either tolerate higher prices, release strategic reserves, subsidise consumers or import wheat. Each option carries a cost. Imports consume foreign exchange, subsidies put pressure on public finances, while higher prices reduce household purchasing power.
Food security is therefore also economic security.
Pakistan needs a long-term National Food Security Policy that survives changes in government and provides predictable rules for farmers, traders, provinces and federal institutions. The policy should ensure timely procurement, transparent and cost-based pricing, affordable agricultural inputs, improved irrigation, climate-resilient seeds and stronger links between research institutions and farmers.
Hoarding, speculation and artificial shortages must also be addressed through effective market regulation. Strategic reserves should be based on reliable consumption data, production forecasts and clearly defined risk assessments rather than short-term administrative decisions.
Pakistan does not lack agricultural potential. What it lacks is a consistent policy framework capable of converting that potential into sustainable food production.
The choice is clear. Pakistan can continue responding to wheat shortages through emergency imports and temporary measures, or it can reform the system by improving farmer profitability, procurement, productivity, irrigation, research and climate resilience.
The country must protect both the farmer and the consumer. Farmers need a viable return, consumers need affordable food, the state needs adequate reserves and the economy needs to conserve scarce foreign exchange.
The immediate import of one million tons may address a short-term requirement, but it cannot solve the underlying problem. Wheat is only the symptom. The real challenge is whether Pakistan can build a food-security system that produces enough affordable wheat year after year without becoming increasingly dependent on imports.
