By: Malik Bilal
Pakistan’s agriculture has had a better year. After losing momentum in 2024–25, the sector has returned to stronger growth. That is welcome, but the latest numbers also raise a more important question: has agriculture become more productive and less vulnerable or has it simply had a better year?
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26 puts agricultural growth at 2.89 per cent, up from a revised 1.53 per cent a year earlier. The crop subsector, which contracted by 1.01 per cent in 2024–25, grew by 1.44 per cent while livestock growth improved from 2.95 per cent to 3.75 per cent.
For a sector that contributes around 23.4 per cent to GDP and accounts for 33.1 per cent of employment, even a modest improvement matters. Agriculture affects rural incomes, food security and the supply of raw materials to industry. A weak agricultural year is rarely confined to the farm.
But the headline growth figure tells only part of the story.
Wheat production rose by 4.3 per cent, from 28.40 million tonnes last year to 29.61 million tonnes in 2025–26. The area under wheat, however, also increased by 4.4 per cent. Higher output therefore came with an almost equal expansion in cultivated area.
Rice presents a different picture. Its cultivated area declined by 3.6 per cent, yet production increased by 2.8 per cent to almost 10 million tonnes because yield improved by 6.6 per cent.
The difference matters. Pakistan cannot keep relying on additional acreage to raise agricultural output. With land and water under growing pressure, the more sustainable route is to get better yields from the resources already available. In that sense, the rice numbers are more encouraging than the increase in wheat production.
Sugarcane also had a good year, with production rising by 6.2 per cent to 89.45 million tonnes. But there is an important detail behind the increase. The Survey notes that better expected returns from sugarcane, compared with cotton and maize, encouraged farmers to expand its cultivation.
This goes to the heart of agricultural policymaking. Farmers respond to what makes economic sense to them. If one crop offers better returns, they will naturally move towards it. National priorities cannot be achieved by production targets alone; they have to make sense at the farm level too.
Cotton is perhaps the clearest example. After the sharp decline of 2024–25, production slipped again from 7.08 million to 7.05 million bales, while the area under cultivation fell by 1.5 per cent. Farmers continued to adjust their choices according to the returns offered by competing Kharif crops.
For Pakistan, this matters well beyond the farm because cotton is closely linked with the industrial economy. If farmers find other crops more rewarding, calls to increase cotton acreage will achieve little. Cotton has to become more productive and more worthwhile for farmers to grow.
While crops continue to produce mixed results, livestock remains the more dependable part of the agricultural economy. It grew by 3.75 per cent this year and now accounts for around 62.4 per cent of agricultural value addition and 14.6 per cent of GDP. More than eight million rural families are involved in livestock production and derive an estimated 35 to 40 per cent of their income from it.
Yet agricultural debate in Pakistan is still dominated by wheat, cotton, sugarcane and crop prices. The numbers suggest that livestock deserves at least as much policy attention. Better animal health, nutrition, breeding and disease control could raise rural incomes without depending simply on larger herd sizes.
Then there is water, perhaps the most difficult part of the agricultural equation.
Total surface-water availability improved from 89.9 million acre-feet in 2024–25 to 92 MAF this year. But even after that increase, availability remained 11.1 per cent below average system usage of 103.5 MAF.
Water scarcity is no longer something Pakistan can treat as an occasional problem of a bad season. It is increasingly part of the conditions under which agriculture has to operate. The focus therefore has to shift from simply seeking more water to getting more value from the water already available.
Climate is making that task harder. The Economic Survey records 2025 as Pakistan’s second-warmest year in 65 years. Agriculture also faced the 2025 floods, although damage to Kharif crops eventually proved less severe than initially feared.
For farmers, such pressures are becoming increasingly familiar: heat, irregular rainfall, floods and water shortages can all affect the same agricultural system. Climate resilience, therefore, cannot remain something discussed mainly after a disaster. Better seed, efficient irrigation, improved soil and water management and stronger extension services need to become part of normal farming.
There has been progress in agricultural support. Credit disbursement increased by 15 per cent during July–March 2025–26, while the government has introduced new institutional arrangements, including the National Agriculture and Food Security Council and the National Meat Sector Transformation and Export Council.
These are useful steps, but agriculture will not ultimately be judged by the amount of credit disbursed, the number of councils established or annual production targets. What matters is what changes on the farm: whether yields rise, farmers earn better returns, water is used more efficiently and losses from climatic shocks become easier to absorb.
Seen against 2024–25, this year’s performance offers reason for optimism. Agricultural growth is stronger. Crops have returned to positive territory. Wheat, rice and sugarcane have done better, while livestock continues to provide stability.
But the weaknesses have not disappeared. Cotton remains under pressure. Maize production has declined. Water remains constrained, and agriculture continues to face increasingly unpredictable weather.
This is why the 2.89 per cent growth rate should be welcomed without being overstated. A single year’s recovery is useful, but it does not tell us whether the sector itself has become stronger.
The real test is simpler: can Pakistan produce more from the same land and less water, while giving farmers better and more stable returns? Can livestock generate more value from each animal? And can farmers withstand a difficult season without losing the gains of the previous one?
Pakistan’s agriculture has shown that it can recover. The task now is to make those recoveries less necessary.
The next agricultural success story should not be about bouncing back from another difficult year. It should be about building a sector that is better prepared for one.
About the Author: Malik Bilal is a development professional working across climate governance, food security and livelihoods, resilience building and sustainable development in Pakistan. He can be reached at malikbilal1983@gmail.com
