By Barrister Usman Ali , Ph.D.
With a fragile minority and rising pressures at home and abroad, Prime Minister Mark Carney faces a test of competence, clarity, and control.
In a ceremony steeped in constitutional tradition, King Charles opened Canada’s 45th Parliament last week, offering praise for democracy, pluralism, and the resilience of parliamentary government. But beyond the pageantry, a very different reality looms.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new administration begins not with celebration, but under extraordinary pressure to deliver fast, tangible results across a deeply divided nation.
His first major move a leaner cabinet of 28 ministers and 10 secretaries of state , signals a shift in tone and focus. Gone is the sprawling overlap of mandates. In its place, a streamlined team built for execution. Over two dozen new faces reflect generational and regional renewal, while a handful of veterans remain for continuity. The message: this government is here to act, not improvise.
But action won’t come easy. The federal election held on April 28 didn’t clarify Canada’s direction. It entrenched its divisions.
The Liberals won 169 seats, three shy of a majority, thanks to a delicate coalition of urban progressives, centrist professionals, and Bloc Québécois voters uneasy about Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Carney’s blunt campaign warning that Trump wants to “break us so America can own us” resonated just enough to prevent a Conservative breakthrough. But the result is a Parliament shaped more by anxiety over external disruption than any unified domestic vision.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, meanwhile, harnessed anger over inflation, taxes, and government overreach. They dominated the Prairies, swept much of rural Ontario and B.C., and made gains among younger voters frustrated by cost-of-living pressures. With both major parties clearing 40 percent of the popular vote, and third parties nearly wiped out, Canada has returned a House of Commons that is polarized, fragile, and consensus-poor.
Weeks after the vote, the landscape has only grown more volatile.
The Carney government must now navigate a turbulent relationship with the United States. Trump’s team has already signalled new tariffs, energy integration demands, and delays to NORAD modernization. Canada’s exclusion from early trade talks is a warning: traditional assumptions of alignment and access no longer apply.
Carney’s foreign policy challenge is to be assertive but realistic, protecting Canadian sovereignty while accelerating trade diversification with Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and Latin America.
At home, the Prime Minister has pledged to tear down interprovincial trade barriers and fast-track infrastructure investment. But federal-provincial cooperation remains elusive. Alberta and Quebec have already pushed back against a proposed internal trade reform bill, which the government has tied to a Canada Day deadline. Without progress, business confidence will erode, and Carney’s promise of economic modernization could falter before it starts.
The cost of living remains the top concern for households. GDP growth is stable, job numbers are solid, but interest rates remain high, rents continue to climb, and food prices are stubbornly elevated. Carney’s challenge is to show that his green, investment-led economic vision can also ease household pressure.
Targeted interventions may be required: expanded GST credits, regional fuel relief, and time-limited rent supports, designed to stabilize pocketbooks without fuelling inflation or breaching the government’s fiscal cap of one percent of GDP.
Housing sits at the heart of public frustration. The Liberals’ strategy focuses on supply: new CMHC-backed financing, support for modular construction, and incentives for purpose-built rentals. But implementation is another story. Zoning paralysis, labour shortages, and material costs are slowing progress. The release of federal land, faster permitting, and a modernized National Building Code are now urgent priorities.
Then there’s Canada’s growing security gap. After years of underinvestment, and with global tensions rising, the military is under-equipped and under-prepared. Cyber threats, foreign interference, and Arctic vulnerabilities have exposed deep structural weaknesses. A long-term investment plan is needed, focused on sovereignty, logistics, and cyber-defense.
Restoring public trust in CSIS and the RCMP, damaged by recent controversies, will also require visible reform. One early step: establishing an independent national security oversight board.
Immigration remains a strength, but strains are showing. Record-high intake levels have outpaced Canada’s ability to house, employ, and integrate newcomers. Carney will need to shift the conversation, prioritizing skilled trades, improving regional distribution, and accelerating credential recognition. A national licensing authority could help fast-track skilled immigrants into the workforce and restore public confidence.
All of this must unfold under tight fiscal restraint. With debt servicing costs now exceeding federal health transfers, Ottawa has little room for error. But sweeping austerity could backfire, jeopardizing Carney’s economic strategy. The smarter route is administrative efficiency: reduce duplication, digitize services, and tie public spending to performance-based outcomes. Transparent reporting would build trust in government while keeping policy on track.
Politically, Carney has little margin for missteps. The Bloc Québécois remains unpredictable. The NDP, now below party status, is in the middle of a leadership vacuum following Jagmeet Singh’s departure. Competing visions are emerging, from Alexandre Boulerice’s labour-focused centrism to Leah Gazan’s prairie progressivism and Charlie Angus’s populist tilt.
Whether the NDP chooses to extract policy wins or step back to rebuild may well decide the government’s lifespan.
Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre hasn’t paused for breath. Though still outside the House, he’s launched a de facto campaign, touring the country, blasting carbon pricing, and dominating social media feeds. Conservative-chaired committees are already targeting housing policy and Carney’s record in climate finance. Should a by-election bring Poilievre back to Parliament, the pressure will only intensify.
This Parliament wasn’t built for revolution. It was built for results. And that may be what the country needs most right now. Canadians didn’t vote with hope, they voted with intent: to protect stability, defend sovereignty, and demand progress without chaos.
Carney has been handed a complicated but clear mandate, deliver practical solutions, not political slogans.
If his government can move quickly on housing, cost of living, interprovincial trade, and global alignment, it may defy expectations. With steady leadership and disciplined reform, this fragile Parliament could become something rare: a moment of national renewal.
Canada has faced tougher tests. What it needs now is clarity, competence, and calm.
If Carney provides that, voters may hold off on picking up the lawn signs again. If not, they won’t stay in storage for long.
