By: Malik Bilal
PAKISTAN’S two latest Economic Surveys present a stark climate contradiction. Policies, financing frameworks and institutional arrangements have expanded but so have the country’s exposure to heat, erratic rainfall and destructive floods. The comparison between 2024 and 2025 shows that progress on paper will count only when it begins to reduce losses on the ground.
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 describes 2024 as an unusually warm and wet year. Pakistan received 390 millimeters of rainfall, 31 per cent above the long-term average of 297.6mm. It was the seventh-wettest year in 64 years. The national annual mean temperature reached 23.52 degrees Celsius, or 0.71°C above the long-term average, making it the ninth-warmest year over the same period.
National averages, however, concealed sharp regional variations. Sindh received 94pc more rainfall than normal, Balochistan 82pc more and Punjab 18pc more. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded an increase of four per cent, while Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir received 12pc and 13pc less rainfall respectively. Mohenjo-Daro recorded 52.5°C on May 26, 2024.
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 presents a different but more alarming pattern. Pakistan’s national annual mean temperature rose to 23.9°C, which was 1.09°C above the long-term average. This made 2025 the second-warmest year in 65 years. AJK, Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded their highest annual mean temperatures during this period.
Annual rainfall declined to 288.5mm, about three per cent below the long-term average. Yet the lower annual figure did not mean lower climate risk. Rainfall during January-March 2025 was 41.2pc below average, making it the ninth-driest such period on record. Pre-monsoon rainfall was nine per cent below average. The pattern then reversed sharply during the July-September monsoon, when national rainfall reached 172.8mm, or 23pc above average.
Punjab received 34pc more monsoon rainfall, Gilgit-Baltistan 31pc more, Balochistan 28pc more and Sindh 26pc more. AJK recorded a five per cent increase and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa two per cent. The movement from dry conditions to concentrated monsoon rainfall reflects the climatic variability documented in the survey.
The comparison is instructive. Pakistan was warmer and substantially wetter than average in 2024. In 2025, it became hotter, while annual rainfall was slightly below average but heavily concentrated during the monsoon. The 2025-26 survey explains that this intense rainfall combined with enhanced glacier melt, elevated river discharges, inadequate drainage capacity and unsustainable land-use practices. Synchronous flood peaks in the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers further intensified flooding in Punjab.
The consequences provide a practical measure of the distance between climate policy and climate protection. The 2025 floods caused estimated damages of Rs822 billion, or approximately $2.9bn. More than 1,039 people lost their lives, over four million were displaced and around 6.5m people across 70 districts were affected. Nearly 77pc of the losses were concentrated in Punjab.
Agriculture sustained damages of Rs430bn, including Rs422.6bn in crop losses. Infrastructure-related damages were estimated at Rs307bn. Road losses accounted for Rs187.7bn and housing damage for Rs91.2bn, while losses to bridges, water and energy infrastructure amounted to approximately Rs28.05bn. More than 229,000 housing units were affected.
The floods also damaged cotton and rice, with implications for food security and exports. The survey projects that unemployment could increase by approximately 200,000 in FY2026. It also reports that the real GDP growth outlook was revised to an estimated range of 3.5pc to 3.9pc, compared with the initial target of 4.2pc.
These figures place climate change firmly within economic policy. The Economic Surveys connect it with agriculture, food security, employment, exports, infrastructure, public expenditure and economic growth. Resilience must therefore be judged not by the number of policies announced, but by whether economic and human losses decline when extreme events occur.
There has been genuine policy progress. The 2024-25 survey records the soft launch of the National Climate Finance Strategy at COP29 and the launch of Pakistan’s first Carbon Market Policy. The strategy seeks to mainstream climate considerations across different levels of government, mobilize domestic resources, attract international climate finance and diversify financing through private-sector partnerships.
The survey also reports that Pakistan secured approximately $1.4bn under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility. It records approximately $82m in Green Climate Fund financing for four projects. These include a WFP-supported project in Buner and Shangla to strengthen flood early-warning systems, anticipatory action and dissemination of climate information. The project is expected to benefit 1.6m people.
Pakistan also launched its first green sukuk in FY2025, raising Rs30bn for green, sustainable and social projects. These measures began connecting climate policy with public finance, investment and financial markets.
The 2025-26 survey records a further shift towards implementation. Pakistan submitted NDC 3.0 in September 2025, extending its target of reducing projected greenhouse-gas emissions by up to 50pc against a business-as-usual trajectory to 2035. Of this reduction, 17pc is expected through domestic measures, while another 33pc remains conditional on international climate finance, technology transfer and capacity-building support.
The estimated investment required to implement these targets is $565.7bn by 2035. The Pakistan Climate Prosperity Plan, launched in April 2026, extends the investment horizon. It estimates an overall requirement of approximately $1.6 trillion by 2050, equivalent to annual investment needs of around $65bn.
The plan identifies energy transition, climate-resilient agriculture and food security, green industrial development, resilient infrastructure, disaster-risk financing and nature-based solutions as priorities. Its targets include 60pc clean energy by 2030, 30pc electric-vehicle penetration by 2030, a 30pc increase in agricultural productivity through climate-smart practices and climate-proofing 75pc of infrastructure by 2040.
The Pakistan Green Taxonomy, approved in September 2025, provides a classification system for sustainable economic activities. It is intended to guide investment towards mitigation and adaptation while reducing greenwashing. The 2025-26 survey also reports that carbon-market guidelines have been operationalized and four projects received letters of intent during July-March FY2026.
The direction of travel is clear. The 2024-25 survey largely records the development of strategies and financing mechanisms. The 2025-26 survey reports their gradual operationalization through NDC 3.0, the Climate Prosperity Plan, Green Taxonomy, carbon-market projects and reforms under the IMF facility. Yet the scale of the 2025 losses shows that institutional progress has not translated into sufficient protection for communities, agriculture and infrastructure.
The next stage must focus on measures already identified in the 2025-26 survey. A minimum 30pc climate weighting and stronger climate screening are to be integrated into the selection of federal development projects. Climate budget tagging is to be strengthened through quarterly execution reports, while the proposed climate-finance dashboard is intended to track climate-tagged funding from federal and provincial development programmes, private investment and internationally financed projects. The National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy is also to be operationalized to support the timely availability of financial resources during disasters.
Implementation must reach districts and exposed communities. District adaptation plans are intended to identify vulnerabilities, prioritize adaptation and integrate climate-resilient planning into local development processes. Plans for Badin and Dera Ghazi Khan have been finalized, while those for Karak and Charsadda are in progress.
The strongest operational framework is contained in the Monsoon 2026 Strategic Plan. Its 240-day preparedness phase calls for rehabilitation of embankments and critical flood infrastructure, completion of small dams, restoration of urban drainage systems, enforcement of floodplain zoning regulations, integration of real-time telemetry with forecasting and reservoir operations, and improved access to district-level early-warning systems.
The way forward is not another broad climate declaration. It is the timely implementation, financing and monitoring of measures already set out in the Economic Surveys. Climate weighting must influence project selection, climate budget tagging must be matched with quarterly expenditure reporting, and the climate-finance dashboard must make funding traceable. District adaptation plans must guide local development processes, while the Monsoon 2026 Strategic Plan must translate into rehabilitated embankments, restored drainage, enforced floodplain zoning and functioning early-warning systems. Pakistan now has the policies, targets, financing frameworks and preparedness measures. The decisive test is whether they are implemented with enough speed, coordination, policy continuity and accountability to reduce the human and economic losses caused by future climate shocks.
About the Author: Malik Bilal is a development professional working across climate governance, food security and livelihoods, resilience building and sustainable development in Pakistan. He can be reached at malikbilal1983@gmail.com
