By Rehman Yar—pursuing public policy at Government College University, Lahore.
The long-standing desire of becoming the Asia’s undisputed regional power now faces an unexpected jolt. The US has averted its attitude towards its crucial partner in Asia. This question is: What prompted the US for jeopardizing decades of partnership? What will this rupture mean for two major economies? Would it be a geopolitical realignment or a latest stunt of the most powerful president?
In a sudden escalation, Donald Trump slapped India with a tariff of an additional 25 percent—doubling US tariffs on India to 50 percent—penalising Delhi for purchasing Russia’s oil, a move India considers “unfair” and “unjustified”. Additionally, he has also threatened India for additional tariffs, as it is a member of BRICS, which he considers anti-American. But the questions that arise here are: Wasn’t the BRIC formed in 2009? Hadn’t Trump have the knowledge of this before? Or were the national interests going well till now?
India’s reaction has been swift. It has criticized the U.S. tariffs as unjust and politically motivated, claimed they would safeguard their economic strategic autonomy, accused the U.S. of double standards in Russia trade relations, initiated programmes to widen their export markets, enacted aid plans for the reeling exporters, and has been beset with stronger domestic pressure to replace American goods with domestic alternatives.
The irony is striking. Isn’t this the same India that the US was making a regional power of Asia to counter China? Why didn’t the US analyzed that if it becomes a regional power, it will challenge the interests of the US in the region as well?
Apparently, this is the India that the US considered the only crucial partner, especially after 9/11—both economically and politically. India was considered as a pillar for regional stability, by the US. On the contrary, it was the principal cause of political turmoil in South Asia. It was not a ‘status quo’ power seeking stability. India was seeking a new role as the regional hegemony. It was India’s ambitions and interference which had destabilised all its neighbours—Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and parts of Pakistan. It was India which refused to accept fair solutions to disputes with every one of its neighbours. It was India’s suppression of the Kashmiris that kept alive the threat of terrorism. But all this was conveniently overlooked until the interests of the US collided.
Then there is Trump himself. He is truly an unpredictable leader, whom the analysts also struggle to comprehend. Since joining the White House, he has consistently bewildering people with his erratic steps around the world. But one thing was apparent from the very start: Trump’s dominant priority is his national interests. Opting for ‘national interests’ over anything in the world is his way. Nothing is more interesting than that, neither friends nor adversaries. India should have seen this coming.
Anyhow, India has been one of the greatest allies of the US, especially after the 2000s. A change in their relationship will change the environment of many Asian countries as well. This offers Pakistan a rare opening to reshape the strategic environment in South Asia. Islamabad should make act decisively, leveraging the moment to re-engage Washington on terms favourable to its own interests.
The future of the US-India relationship would be an interesting spectacle. Will they step back from their rhetoric or move forward? The next move of Trump would decide it further.
