Staff Report
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s cotton production has fallen 41 percent below target to just 6.42 million bales in 2024-25, as fertile agricultural land continues shifting to sugarcane cultivation despite existing sugar surpluses, a prominent business leader warned Monday.
The production collapse stems from a 22 percent decline in cultivated cotton area as farmers abandon the crop for sugarcane, forcing Pakistan to import over 1.5 million bales of cotton and 1.25 million bales of yarn to meet industrial demand. This import dependency has drained foreign exchange reserves at a time when the country’s textile sector, which generates 60 percent of national exports, faces mounting competitive pressure.
Former Islamabad Chamber of Commerce president Shahid Rasheed Butt attributed the crisis to deliberate policy choices influenced by sugar mill lobbies rather than economic logic. The business leader warned that unchecked sugar industry influence threatens to permanently damage Pakistan’s largest export earner and employer of millions.
Meanwhile, sugar production soared to 5.77 million metric tons in 2024-25, creating domestic inventories of nearly 4 million metric tons that far exceed national consumption needs. Despite warnings from many quarters, the government approved exports of over 765,000 metric tons before reversing course months later to authorize imports of up to 750,000 metric tons as local prices spiked to Rs200 per kilogram.
This export-import cycle has benefitted sugar cartel and cost the national treasury millions in subsidies while leaving consumers to bear inflated prices. The former chamber president Shahid Rasheed Butt described the pattern as evidence of a “mafia-like grip” on agricultural policy that prioritizes political patronage over productivity.
Cotton growers now struggle with shrinking acreage, erratic support, and water shortages while the sugar industry continues expanding through guaranteed prices, subsidies, and preferential irrigation access. The policy imbalance has created a structural disadvantage for Pakistan’s most crucial export crop.
Mr. Butt said that the textile industry’s declining competitiveness extends beyond raw material shortages to broader economic consequences. Reduced cotton production has increased manufacturing costs, weakened export performance, and threatened job security for millions of textile workers across Punjab and Sindh provinces.
Agricultural economists note that fertile land conversion from cotton to sugarcane represents a fundamental misallocation of resources. Cotton cultivation supports value-added textile manufacturing and generates higher foreign exchange earnings per acre compared to sugar production.
The crisis highlights systemic flaws in Pakistan’s agricultural policy framework, where powerful industrial lobbies shape decisions despite contradicting national economic interests. The former ICCI president called for immediate structural reforms including independent reviews of land use policies and subsidy distribution.
Shahid Rasheed Butt warned that without policy intervention, the continued cotton decline could trigger permanent damage to Pakistan’s textile competitiveness. “We’re sacrificing our largest export industry to serve narrow political interests,” he stated during discussions with the business community.
The controversy underscores broader challenges facing Pakistan’s economy as policymakers struggle to balance competing agricultural and industrial interests while managing inflation, energy shortages, and fiscal constraints that limit strategic planning capacity.
