By Faisal Javaid
2026-02-07
The recent state visit of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kazakhstan, to Pakistan on 3–4 February 2026 marks a significant moment in Pakistan–Central Asia relations. As the first visit by a Kazakh head of state to Islamabad in more than two decades, it reflects a renewed strategic intent on both sides to elevate bilateral ties from cordial engagement to structured, long-term cooperation.
The visit resulted in the signing of a Joint Declaration on the Establishment of a Strategic Partnership, formally institutionalising relations across political, economic, connectivity, defence, and cultural domains. While such declarations often carry symbolic value, their real importance lies in the convergence of strategic interests that underpin them. In the present case, the partnership is driven by evolving geo-economic realities, shifting regional alignments, and a shared desire to diversify economic and connectivity options in an increasingly uncertain Eurasian environment.
For Pakistan, Kazakhstan represents more than a Central Asian partner. As the region’s largest economy by contributing over 60% of Central Asia’s GDP and a key member of the Eurasian Economic Union, Kazakhstan offers access to broader Eurasian markets. For Kazakhstan, Pakistan provides strategic depth through its ports at Karachi and Gwadar, offering potential connectivity to South Asia, the Middle East, and reducing transit time by 40–50% compared to traditional routes. This mutual complementarity explains the emphasis placed during the visit on trade expansion, transit corridors, and logistics cooperation.
One of the most notable outcomes of the visit was the agreement to raise bilateral trade from approximately USD 250 million (recorded in 2024-25) to USD 1 billion within the next two years. While ambitious, this target reflects political confidence rather than economic fantasy. The signing of 37 agreements and Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) across sectors such as energy, mining, railways, logistics, digital technologies, education, and climate cooperation with provides a broad framework for achieving this goal. However, Pakistan’s past experience with similar initiatives underscores a critical lesson: agreements alone do not generate outcomes unless supported by sustained implementation.
Connectivity emerged as a central pillar of the strategic dialogue. Both sides emphasised the importance of regional transport and transit corridors, including the Belarus–Russia–Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan route. For Islamabad, such initiatives reinforce its aspiration to position itself as a land bridge between Central and South Asia. For Astana, they align with its multi-vector foreign policy and its search for diversified and reliable access to global markets amid disruptions in traditional Eurasian routes potentially tapping into Pakistan’s 240 million-strong consumer market.
Yet connectivity through Afghanistan remains the most complex variable in this equation. While both Pakistan and Kazakhstan recognise Afghanistan’s centrality as a transit state, they are also aware that infrastructure-led integration cannot succeed without security and political stability. Pakistan’s cautious but supportive posture reflects an understanding that premature optimism could undermine long-term credibility. Connectivity must therefore proceed in parallel with realistic assessments of security, governance, and regional cooperation.
Beyond trade and transit, the visit also highlighted the importance of soft connectivity. Education and people-to-people ties received unprecedented attention, with growing numbers of Pakistani students enrolling in Kazakh universities and the establishment of and the establishment of 3 Kazakh cultural and research centres at leading Pakistani institutions. These initiatives represent long-term investments in societal linkages and intellectual cooperation, helping cultivate future generations with shared regional perspectives. Such soft-power engagement adds depth and resilience to bilateral relations beyond transactional diplomacy.
Despite the positive momentum, structural constraints persist. Limited banking channels, cumbersome visa regimes, weak logistics integration, and high transaction costs continue to impede trade and investment. Without addressing these bottlenecks, even the most well-intentioned strategic partnerships risk underperforming.
Policy Recommendations
First, Pakistan and Kazakhstan should prioritise implementation over expansion. Rather than focusing on additional agreements, both sides must concentrate on the effective implementation of all existing MoUs. This requires sector-specific action plans, clearly defined timelines, and measurable benchmarks to ensure accountability and progress.
Second, financial and banking connectivity must be strengthened. Establishing correspondent banking arrangements and enhancing coordination between financial institutions would significantly ease trade settlements and investment flows.
Third, customs modernisation and digitalisation should be fast-tracked. Simplified transit procedures, harmonised standards, and digital platforms are essential for reducing delays and costs associated with overland trade.
Fourth, Kazakhstan, along with other regional states, should play a more proactive diplomatic role in encouraging Afghanistan to prevent cross-border terrorism and ensure regional security. Sustainable connectivity cannot be realised without a stable transit environment. Coordinated regional engagement is therefore necessary to press for security assurances, protection of infrastructure, and the unhindered implementation of regional connectivity initiatives linking Central and South Asia.
Finally, people-to-people and academic cooperation should be institutionalised through joint scholarships, faculty exchanges, and collaborative research programmes, ensuring continuity beyond political cycles.
Conclusion
President Tokayev’s state visit has laid a strong political and institutional foundation for a renewed Pakistan–Kazakhstan partnership. Its strategic importance lies not only in the scale of agreements signed, but in the alignment of geo-economic priorities and regional visions. The real test, however, will be implementation. If political commitment is matched by administrative follow-through and regional cooperation, this partnership could contribute meaningfully to a more connected, stable, and economically integrated Eurasian region.
The writer is the author of Bridging Horizons: Unraveling the Enigma of Connectivity Between Pakistan and Central Asia and Head of the Department of International Relations & Mass Communication at Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science & Technology, Islamabad.
