As Pakistan navigates its complex macroeconomic recovery, the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25 presents a mixed portrait of the agricultural sector. It is a space simultaneously burdened by structural and climatic pressures, yet supported in parts by resilience and adaptability. While agriculture remains a central pillar of the national economy, contributing 23.54 per cent to GDP and employing 37 per cent of the labour force, the latest data reveals worrying asymmetries within its core subsectors. Crop performance has faltered significantly, even as livestock continues to uphold rural incomes and national food supply chains.
The overall growth of the agriculture sector during FY 2025 stood at a modest 0.56 per cent, which is markedly below the previous year’s robust 6.4 per cent. This downturn was driven almost entirely by a steep 6.82 per cent contraction in the crop subsector, with major crops plummeting by 13.49 per cent and cotton ginning falling by 19.03 per cent. These figures highlight the continued vulnerability of staple crop production to climatic shocks, high input prices and structural inefficiencies in farm management and resource allocation.
Wheat production, an essential contributor to Pakistan’s food security, declined by 8.9 per cent to 28.98 million tonnes due to a combination of high sowing-season temperatures, a 6.5 per cent reduction in cultivated area and insufficient rainfall. Rice, though stable in output, recorded a slight drop in production to 9.72 million tonnes despite a 7.2 per cent expansion in cultivated area. The yield per hectare declined to 2,494 kg compared to 2,713 kg in the previous year, reflecting water constraints and localized weather anomalies. Maize suffered a 15.4 per cent production fall, dropping to 8.24 million tonnes, primarily due to reduced sowing. Sugarcane, covering 1.19 million hectares, registered a production dip of 3.88 per cent, resulting in a total output of 84.24 million tonnes. Although its yield of 71,764 kg per hectare remained close to the national average, the production shortfall was still significant.
Perhaps most striking was the setback in cotton. Output plunged by 30.7 per cent to 7.08 million bales, with the average yield sliding from 717 kg per hectare to 590 kg per hectare. A 15.7 per cent reduction in area under cultivation and disruptions due to late sowing and pest infestations were key contributors. These regressions point not only to episodic misfortunes but also to entrenched deficiencies in seed quality, pest management and climate adaptation strategies. Compared regionally, Pakistan’s wheat and rice yields continue to trail behind those of India and Bangladesh. This comparison underscores the urgent need for investment in high-efficiency irrigation, certified seeds and robust crop extension services.
In stark contrast, the livestock subsector continues to demonstrate resilience and steady growth. Posting a 4.72 per cent increase during FY 2025, livestock contributed 63.6 per cent to the total value addition in agriculture and 14.97 per cent to national GDP. The sector produced 72.34 million tonnes of milk, an increase from 70.07 million tonnes recorded the previous year. Buffalo and cow milk constituted 43.13 million and 27.08 million tonnes respectively. Meat production also rose to 5.97 million tonnes, including 2.55 million tonnes of beef, 0.84 million tonnes of mutton and 2.58 million tonnes of poultry meat. The latter posted a notable 9.4 per cent increase. Egg production climbed to 26.7 billion units, driven by growth in both commercial and domestic poultry.
These figures affirm livestock’s role as a vital economic stabilizer. Herd sizes continued to grow, with cattle reaching 59.7 million, buffalo 47.7 million, goats 89.4 million and sheep 33.1 million. This expansion was supported by improved veterinary coverage, better feed quality and targeted disease control interventions. High-impact initiatives such as the Rs 7.3 billion National Foot and Mouth Disease Control Programme and the FAO-supported ECTAD project have enhanced livestock health systems and surveillance capacity. The sector also made headway in global trade integration, with formal engagements underway to meet export requirements for markets in China, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Southeast Asia.
Despite these strengths, the sector remains exposed to critical input and infrastructure challenges. Fertilizer off-take declined by 14.1 per cent year-on-year to 3.4 million tonnes, with nitrogen and phosphate usage both falling due to subdued crop profitability and higher prices. Certified seed availability met only 35.6 per cent of national requirements—742,000 tonnes against a demand of 2.09 million tonnes—reflecting ongoing gaps in seed production and distribution networks. Mechanization suffered as well with tractor production down by 34.6 per cent and limited adoption of precision agriculture practices. Water shortages remained a constant pressure point, with Kharif 2024 water availability recorded at 60.5 million acre-feet and Rabi 2025 at just 29.4 million acre-feet. Both figures fall below historical norms.
Nevertheless, the government has attempted to cushion these constraints through expanded credit flows and targeted interventions. Agricultural credit disbursement reached Rs 1,880.4 billion during July to March FY 2025, marking a 15 per cent increase from the previous year. Commercial banks, particularly the top five, led the effort with Rs 1,063.6 billion disbursed, reflecting a 22.2 per cent year-on-year increase. Islamic banks recorded a 31.9 per cent increase, underscoring the rising demand for Sharia-compliant rural financing instruments. Programmes such as tube well solarization, tax exemptions on certified seeds and targeted investment under the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) signify the state’s recognition of agriculture as a critical growth engine.
Still, challenges persist. The uneven performance of specialized financial institutions such as ZTBL with disbursements down by 12.9 per cent, and a continued decline in outreach by Microfinance Institutions and Rural Support Programmes, highlight weaknesses in institutional delivery and rural banking inclusion. These shortcomings, if left unaddressed, risk limiting the impact of otherwise well-conceived fiscal and policy measures.
The picture that emerges from the Economic Survey is one of stark duality. While livestock thrives and sustains national growth, the broader agriculture sector remains shackled by climate shocks, limited innovation and input bottlenecks. As global agricultural trade becomes more competitive and climate risks more pronounced, the cost of inaction could far outweigh the cost of reform.
There is now a growing consensus that Pakistan must move beyond short-term relief measures and adopt a sustainable, long-term approach to agricultural development. The sector cannot afford to remain trapped in cycles of climate-induced losses, fragmented interventions and outdated input support systems. A deliberate shift toward climate-resilient, inclusive and productivity-driven agriculture is not only desirable but increasingly unavoidable.
This transition begins with a clear policy commitment to mainstream climate-smart agricultural practices. These should move beyond pilot demonstrations and be scaled through local extension networks, farmer field schools and improved access to relevant technologies. Investment in drought-tolerant crop varieties, soil conservation and integrated pest management should be prioritized in areas already facing acute water and temperature stress.
Water governance requires urgent attention. The promotion of water-efficient irrigation systems, such as drip and sprinkler methods, must be supported through targeted incentives, easy credit and technical assistance, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The potential for public and private collaboration in this space remains largely untapped.
Pakistan’s seed system also demands structural reform. The persistent shortfall in certified seed availability, which currently meets only about one-third of national demand, must be addressed through more active public-private partnerships, decentralized certification infrastructure and accelerated varietal registration processes. Without timely access to quality seed, yield improvements will remain out of reach for smallholders.
In a similar vein, the current subsidy framework should be revisited. Rather than continuing blanket support for electricity or fertilizers, public resources should be reallocated to promote farm mechanization, crop insurance, digital land registration and bundled input packages that enhance resilience. Policymaking must evolve from reactive relief to proactive transformation.
Coordination among provinces also remains a critical gap. A functional federal-provincial platform is essential in order to align efforts on issues such as seed quality control, locust preparedness, irrigation equity, and cross-border trade. Without such harmonization, national food security goals will continue to face institutional fragmentation.
In the livestock sector, the opportunity for growth is significant. Priorities must include improving feed quality, strengthening animal health services and establishing traceability systems that meet international export standards. The alignment of halal certification with global market requirements, combined with a functional digital export approval mechanism, could position Pakistan more competitively in the Middle East and Southeast Asian markets.
As the government prepares the upcoming federal budget, it must consider agriculture not as a peripheral sector but as a strategic driver of food security, employment and export diversification. The policy focus must shift away from subsidies and support price politics and move toward long-term investments in research, innovation, water stewardship and institutional capacity.
The future of agriculture in Pakistan cannot be secured through piecemeal measures or temporary support schemes. What is needed is sustained political will, strategic coherence and recognition that rural development is inseparable from national progress. A stable, modernized and climate-resilient agriculture sector is no longer a policy choice. It is a national imperative.
About the Author: Malik Bilal is a seasoned development professional with expertise in emergency response, recovery and governance in conflict-affected areas of Pakistan. He has worked with UN agencies and international organizations to strengthen community resilience, support institutional reforms and lead strategic program implementation. Malikbilal1983@gmail.com
