Barrister Usman Ali, Ph.D.
Pakistan is building homes for a growing population while destroying the fertile land needed to feed it. This contradiction threatens the country’s food security and the economic future of generations to come. We are replacing fields with houses without asking where their occupants will find food tomorrow. What appears to be a matter of urban planning is, in fact, a question of national survival.
According to the 2023 census, Pakistan’s population stood at approximately 241.5 million, with an average annual growth rate of 2.55 percent between 2017 and 2023. World Bank estimates placed it above 255 million in 2025. Schools, hospitals, employment opportunities and essential infrastructure have struggled to keep pace. At the same time, productive farmland is steadily disappearing beneath residential and commercial developments.
Agriculture remains central to Pakistan’s economy. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26, it accounted for approximately 23.44 percent of GDP. The sector supports millions of livelihoods, supplies raw materials to industries and provides essential food supplies. Yet valuable agricultural land continues to be converted into real estate for short-term financial gains.
The outskirts of Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala and Peshawar once contained flourishing farms and orchards supplying nearby cities. Today, many such areas are being replaced by gated communities, residential plots and commercial centres. A 2021 study of urban expansion in Lahore found that built-up land in its study area increased from approximately 23 percent in 2000 to over 47 percent in 2020.
A growing population undoubtedly needs homes, roads and public services. Urban expansion cannot simply be stopped. The real question is how and where it should take place. Must every new housing scheme consume fertile fields? Why not prioritise less productive land, urban redevelopment and higher-density housing?
Unfortunately, parts of Pakistan’s housing sector have become vehicles for speculation rather than affordable homeownership. Concerns persist about the influence of powerful investors and politically connected interests over land transactions and regulatory approvals. Farmland acquired relatively cheaply can be converted into residential plots and sold at substantial premiums, often with little regard for its long-term agricultural value.
The extraordinary rise in plot prices raises further questions. In some developments, asking prices for comparable one-kanal plots have reportedly risen from around Rs40 million to Rs85–90 million within relatively short periods. Location, infrastructure and payment arrangements may explain some variation, but can demand alone justify such increases? Artificial scarcity, speculative trading and opaque transactions warrant independent investigation, without presuming wrongdoing by any particular developer.
Ordinary families bear the consequences. While investors may profit from rising prices, prospective homeowners find property increasingly unaffordable. Some buyers also face uncertainty over land ownership, official approvals, development commitments and the actual availability of plots. For families investing their life savings, such uncertainty can be devastating.
These concerns expose a wider failure of accountability. Who authorises the conversion of agricultural land? Who assesses its economic and environmental consequences? And who accepts responsibility when fertile land is permanently lost? Regulatory approvals must carry accountability for their long-term impact, rather than becoming administrative formalities.
Unplanned housing expansion also strains groundwater supplies. New settlements depend heavily on water extraction, while concrete surfaces restrict rainfall from replenishing underground reserves. Poor drainage further increases the risk of urban flooding. Once fertile land is covered by roads and buildings, restoring its productive capacity becomes extraordinarily difficult.
Pakistan already faces water shortages, climate change, floods, droughts and rising agricultural costs. Population growth will increase demand for wheat, rice, vegetables, fruit, meat and dairy. If agricultural land continues to shrink without corresponding productivity gains, greater reliance on food imports could strain foreign exchange reserves and increase the cost of living.
The government has acknowledged the problem. In July 2025, the federal Ministry of Planning held a high-level discussion on the conversion of agricultural land into housing societies. However, official concern must translate into enforceable policies and effective oversight.
The first priority should be a comprehensive national approach to land use. Satellite mapping, digital land records and scientific assessments can identify fertile agricultural zones requiring legal protection. Urban master plans should direct expansion towards suitable, less productive land while accounting for transport, water availability and environmental limits.
Second, planned higher-density housing should replace uncontrolled outward expansion wherever feasible. Affordable apartments, supported by reliable utilities, schools, healthcare and public transport, can accommodate growing populations while reducing pressure on farmland.
Third, the housing market needs transparency and stronger regulation. Land ownership, official approvals, plot availability, development progress and actual transaction prices should be publicly accessible. Digital records and independent oversight can help detect fraudulent files, illegal schemes and suspicious transactions. Developers, officials and politically influential individuals found responsible for misconduct must face consequences. The objective is not to discourage legitimate investment but to protect buyers and prevent exploitation.
Finally, new housing developments should undergo credible water and environmental assessments, with provisions for rainwater harvesting, drainage and green spaces. Alongside these measures, better education, women’s empowerment, economic opportunities and voluntary family planning services are essential to managing population growth and future resource demands.
Pakistan must reconsider what development truly means. Is progress measured merely by roads, high-rise buildings, gated communities and expensive plots, or by the ability to provide housing while safeguarding food, water and the environment? Fertile land is a national asset, essential to economic independence and food security.
If we continue to mistake the conversion of farmland into housing plots for progress, future generations will ask a painful question: You built us towering buildings, but where are the fields that were supposed to feed us?
