By Musawar Qureshi
After the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, the security bloc that existed in this region collapsed. From this geopolitical shift, China has gained the most advantage. Many people believe that the United States fought the Afghan Taliban and then left Afghanistan of its own will. However, scholars and researchers who understand geopolitics neither believe this nor consider it a valid principle.
In Syria, a regime change took place where the Iran-backed government was overthrown. The country that benefited the most from this shift was Türkiye. In fact, Türkiye was behind this shift, and its proxy forces were fighting shoulder to shoulder with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. After victory, Türkiye gradually came out openly. Even in the fight against non-state actors there, Türkiye provided open support. The United States remained silent because it knew that Türkiye was the main stakeholder in this shift, and American interference could have created diplomatic and political tensions.
The American withdrawal occurred due to China’s strategy. Pakistan was China’s ally, and after the American security bloc collapsed, China began building relations and routes. If someone believes that the United States came to Afghanistan to fight the Afghan Taliban, or that the Afghan Taliban defeated the United States, it is merely an emotional illusion.
As the American security bloc in the region began to collapse, the United States started preparing India to act as the region’s security provider. An alliance of Australia, Britain, and the United States was formed to counter China. China established its presence in Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Djibouti. Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh moved away from India.
When India realized that it was not being accepted as the region’s security provider, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated in May 2025. The United States supported India. However, when India’s air force suffered severe losses in the first attack, the United States realized its mistake — that India could not become the region’s security provider. Therefore, a second option was used: the weapons left behind in Afghanistan for the Afghan Taliban. These were intended to create instability so that China could not benefit from the geopolitical shift. However, China’s technology being used in Pakistan changed the direction of technological power. The world began to realize that advanced technology does not exist only in the West but also in the Global South.
China and Pakistan were well aware of what kind of deal the United States was making with the Afghan Taliban, how much aid was being provided, and why that aid was being spent on weapons. In Afghanistan, the CIA and Mossad provided shelter to international terrorists. Prisoners in Afghanistan were trained by Al-Qaeda commanders, and Afghan Taliban began launching attacks inside Pakistan.
After Pakistan reassured the United States and after the court-martial of Faiz Hameed, relations with the United States improved. Pakistan wanted to eliminate the security threat in the region, but that was not possible without American consent. Pakistan offered the United States the use of Pasni Port in Balochistan. As the United States began to complete its deal with the Afghan Taliban, U.S. President Donald Trump also stated that Bagram Air Base should be regained.
The United States returning to the region to rebuild a security bloc would be harmful for China, and this time it would create more problems for Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban began preparing ground for the United States. The United Arab Emirates, India, and Qatar were funding this groundwork, which was to be established alongside China’s ally.
The Afghan Taliban started sending militants into Pakistan, made “Greater Afghanistan” part of their foreign policy, and considered Pakistani territories as part of their national interest. Attacks then began so that instability in the region would force the United States to return. Pakistan decided to confront Afghanistan militarily, and destroying American weapons became a key objective.
Even then, the Afghan Taliban still had a deal with the United States. While the United States became engaged with Iran in the Middle East, Pakistan began targeting all American weapons in Afghanistan and carried out several attacks on Bagram Air Base.
Because the Afghan Taliban’s supply of weapons has diminished, terrorism in Pakistan has decreased. The weapons and funding on which they had built their policies are now ineffective. As these weapons are exhausted, the security threat in the region will decline, and it will become difficult for the United States to rebuild a security bloc here.
If the Afghan Taliban no longer possesses weapons, they will focus on Afghanistan’s internal situation and will automatically step back from supporting terrorist organizations. Terrorist groups will either remain silent to survive or eventually surrender.
