By: Musawar Qureshi
The process of repatriation (return) of Afghan refugees from Pakistan has accelerated over the past few years. This is an issue that has significantly impacted not only Pakistan’s economy but also its foreign policy, internal security, and social cohesion. For more than four decades, Pakistan hosted millions of Afghan refugees—an act widely recognized globally as a major humanitarian contribution. However, changing regional dynamics and internal challenges have now made refugee repatriation a key component of national policy.
The arrival of Afghan refugees in Pakistan began in 1979 following the outbreak of war in Afghanistan. At that time, millions of Afghans crossed the border into Pakistan, and their numbers continued to grow over the years. Despite limited economic resources, Pakistan provided them with shelter, education, and employment opportunities for decades.
In recent years, under government policy, the repatriation of undocumented and illegal refugees has intensified. According to reports by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, since 2023 more than 2 million Afghan nationals have returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan, while nearly 1 million were repatriated during 2025 alone. These figures indicate that Pakistan is currently undergoing one of the largest refugee return processes in its history.
The effects of Afghan refugee repatriation cannot be viewed from a single perspective, as both positive and negative aspects exist.
One of the most significant benefits is the reduction of pressure on resources. For decades, sectors such as healthcare, education, water, and other basic services have been under strain. A decrease in refugee population is likely to ease this burden. Additionally, issues such as the informal economy, smuggling, and undocumented labor may also decline. There is also an expectation that employment opportunities for local workers may increase in certain sectors.
On the other hand, Afghan refugees have been an important part of Pakistan’s informal economy. Their presence has been notable in construction, transportation, agriculture, and small businesses. Their sudden departure may slow economic activity in certain areas. The rental market and property sector may also be affected, particularly in regions where a large number of Afghan refugees resided. Border trade, which has been a key economic driver for several cities, may also experience temporary decline.
Pakistan’s Afghan policy has always been based on a balance between security concerns and diplomatic considerations. If peace and stability improve in Afghanistan and cross-border terrorism declines, there may be room for partial policy relaxation in the future. Measures such as legal visa frameworks, trade facilitation, and temporary residency options could emerge as part of such flexibility.
However, if security concerns persist or illegal activities increase, stricter policies are likely to remain in place. In this regard, Pakistan must prioritize internal security, as national security is a fundamental responsibility of any state.
Another important dimension of this issue relates to Pakistan’s internal environment. Certain groups—whether driven by political, economic, or social interests—sometimes attempt to influence public opinion through irresponsible statements or misinformation. Such actions can harm national unity and hinder the country’s progress.
It is a reality that national unity and collective thinking are essential for a country’s development. While differences of opinion are a natural part of democratic societies, narratives that go against national interests or create division can be harmful to the state. Therefore, it is crucial that all segments of society, particularly the media and opinion-makers, act responsibly.
The repatriation of Afghan refugees is not merely a domestic issue for Pakistan; it also carries regional implications. Economic conditions, employment opportunities, and security in Afghanistan will determine whether returning refugees can sustainably resettle there. If Afghanistan fails to achieve economic stability, the risk of renewed migration may arise.
For this reason, Pakistan must maintain balanced diplomatic and trade relations with Afghanistan. Alternative border trade systems, proper documentation mechanisms, and joint economic initiatives can prove beneficial for both countries.
In conclusion, the return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is a complex and sensitive process that must be viewed not only through a security lens but also from economic, social, and humanitarian perspectives. If managed with proper planning, transparency, and respect for human dignity, Pakistan can turn this challenge into an opportunity.
Conversely, if the process is handled hastily or without a sound strategy, its negative consequences could affect not only Pakistan but the entire region. The need of the hour is for Pakistan to adopt a balanced, wise, and long-term approach one that ensures harmony between national security, economic stability, and human values.
