By Mairaj ul Hamid Nasri
Five years have passed since the Afghan Taliban returned to power in Kabul on August 15, 2021, bringing an end to the Ashraf Ghani government. Their takeover was largely bloodless in Kabul and marked a dramatic turning point in Afghanistan’s political history. At the time, the international community hoped that the Taliban, having gained extensive experience through years of conflict and negotiations during the Afghan peace process, had developed a more pragmatic understanding of international politics and would pursue a more moderate approach to domestic and foreign affairs.
Those expectations, however, have largely remained unfulfilled.
The completion of five years of Taliban rule provides an appropriate opportunity to critically assess the trajectory of Pak-Afghan relations, examine the gains and losses of this period, and consider the prospects for the future. One fact remains undeniable: the futures of Pakistan and Afghanistan are deeply interconnected. Their geographical proximity, shared history, cultural affinities, religious bonds and extensive people-to-people contacts make it impossible for either country to remain indifferent to the stability and prosperity of the other.
The Taliban had given important assurances in the February 2020 Doha Agreement, including a commitment that Afghan territory would not be allowed to be used by militant groups to threaten other countries. Yet, from Pakistan’s perspective, this commitment has not been adequately fulfilled. Islamabad has repeatedly expressed concern over the presence and activities of militant groups operating from Afghan territory and their alleged involvement in cross-border attacks inside Pakistan.
This has become one of the most serious sources of tension between the two countries. Pakistan argues that the increasing infiltration and militant attacks from across the border have compelled it to take security measures, including targeting militant hideouts in border areas. Such actions, in turn, have triggered strong reactions from Kabul and further damaged bilateral trust.
The relationship has therefore entered a dangerous cycle: militant attacks lead to security operations; security operations generate diplomatic protests; diplomatic tensions contribute to border closures; and prolonged border closures hurt ordinary people and businesses on both sides.
The consequences are not limited to governments or security institutions. The real victims are ordinary citizens. Families have been separated, livelihoods disrupted and businesses damaged. Communities living along the border, which have historically maintained strong social and economic ties, have suffered particularly badly.
The refugee issue has further complicated relations. Afghan refugees living in Pakistan have faced increasing uncertainty amid repatriation measures and deteriorating bilateral relations. At the same time, Kabul has repeatedly criticized Pakistan over the treatment of Afghan citizens and called for greater consideration of their humanitarian needs. The issue requires a humane, coordinated and sustainable solution rather than political point-scoring by either side.
Afghanistan, for its part, also has serious grievances against Pakistan. Afghan officials and sections of Afghan society have accused Pakistan of pursuing a double game and of failing to acknowledge its own shortcomings in dealing with militancy. There have also been allegations that Pakistani authorities have taken measures against Afghan citizens for political reasons. Whether all such allegations are justified or not, they have contributed to a deepening trust deficit between the two countries.
Meanwhile, border closures have inflicted considerable economic costs. For Afghanistan, Pakistan has historically been one of its most important and accessible trading partners and a major route for imports and exports. The closure of border crossings disrupts the movement of goods, patients, students, traders and families.
Pakistan also feels the economic consequences. Afghan markets have traditionally supplied Pakistan with fresh fruits and other agricultural products, including apples, pomegranates and grapes. Restrictions on cross-border trade therefore affect consumers, traders and transporters in Pakistan as well.
The irony is that the two countries possess enormous potential for cooperation. Their commonalities are far greater than their differences. Yet their relationship continues to be dominated by suspicion, security concerns and political mistrust.
There are also wider geopolitical dimensions to the problem. Regional and international actors with competing interests may benefit from continued instability and mistrust between Pakistan and Afghanistan. A permanently divided and hostile relationship between the two neighbours serves neither country’s long-term interests.
The question, therefore, is not simply who is responsible for the present crisis. The more important question is: How can Pakistan and Afghanistan escape this cycle of confrontation?
The answer lies in realistic diplomacy, mutual accommodation and sustained engagement.
Afghanistan must take credible and verifiable measures to ensure that its territory is not used by militant organizations against Pakistan or any other neighbouring state. This is not merely a Pakistani demand; it is fundamental to Afghanistan’s own long-term stability and its relations with the international community.
Pakistan, meanwhile, needs to pursue an accommodative and pragmatic policy towards Afghanistan. As the larger and more experienced regional neighbour, Pakistan should avoid policies that could push Afghanistan further away. Security concerns are legitimate, but they must be complemented by sustained diplomacy, economic engagement and people-to-people contacts.
Both sides must also recognize that border closures cannot become a permanent substitute for diplomacy. Trade routes should remain open wherever security conditions permit, and mechanisms should be developed to prevent political disputes from bringing economic activity to a standstill.
There is a compelling case for expanding cooperation in trade, transit, education, health, border management, energy, infrastructure and regional connectivity. The two countries should focus on areas of mutual interest while addressing differences through institutionalized dialogue.
After five years of Taliban rule, the lesson is clear: continued confrontation will benefit neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan. Both countries risk being trapped by short-term political calculations, competing narratives and mutual accusations while their ordinary citizens pay the price.
The future of Pak-Afghan relations should not be determined solely by security establishments, political rhetoric or external actors. The aspirations of ordinary Pakistanis and Afghans-peace, economic opportunity, education, healthcare, security and dignified livelihoods-must be placed at the centre of bilateral policy.
Pakistan and Afghanistan cannot change their geography. They cannot erase their shared history. Nor can they afford to permanently sever the social and economic bonds that connect their peoples.
The choice before them is therefore straightforward: continued confrontation or a new era of pragmatic cooperation.
Afghanistan must address Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns, particularly the presence of militant groups on its soil. Pakistan, on the other hand, must adopt a more accommodative and forward-looking approach that keeps the door to Kabul open.
There are many more areas of cooperation than conflict between the two countries. The future lies in strengthening those commonalities, expanding people-to-people contacts and resolving differences through persistent diplomacy.
Five years after the Taliban’s return to power, it is time for both Islamabad and Kabul to move beyond the politics of blame and begin building a relationship based on mutual respect, shared interests and the common aspirations of their peoples.
The author teaches Political Science at the University of Malakand, Chakdara. He can be reached at mairajulhamid717@gmail.com.
