By Zaheer ud Din Babar
The recent joint statement issued by India and Japan once again reflects New Delhi’s hostile posture towards Pakistan and China. The visit of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to India also appears to signal a shift in Tokyo’s diplomatic approach towards Pakistan.
The joint statement noted that the two leaders “unequivocally and strongly condemned terrorism and violent extremism in all its forms and manifestations, including cross-border terrorism from Pakistan.” This marks the first time in recent years that Japan has directly referred to Pakistan in such a manner. For example, after the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025, Japan condemned the attack and expressed solidarity with India but refrained from directly blaming Pakistan for any involvement.
This raises an important question: Why has Tokyo changed its tone towards Pakistan?
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is widely regarded as a conservative leader with strong views on regional and international affairs. She has consistently expressed concerns about China’s rapidly expanding influence. It is well known that Beijing and Islamabad maintain an “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership” and frequently describe each other as “Iron Brothers.” The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remains the cornerstone of bilateral relations, while China has provided Pakistan with economic, technical, and military assistance over many years.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s latest diplomatic stance towards Pakistan may indicate an attempt by the current Japanese leadership to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
Another perspective relates to the recent tensions involving the United States and Iran. Pakistan has attempted to project itself as a peacemaker in regional and international affairs. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has faced considerable criticism from opposition parties and sections of the Indian media over the performance of his government’s foreign policy.
Some analysts argue that New Delhi believed that the joint American-Israeli campaign against Iran would succeed. Consequently, India has generally maintained closer strategic relations with Israel than with Iran.
According to some reports, on 4 March 2026 an American submarine allegedly sank the Iranian warship IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean using torpedoes. The vessel was reportedly returning from the MILAN 2026 international naval exercise hosted by India in Visakhapatnam. Some observers argue that such an operation could not have taken place without at least a degree of regional awareness or coordination. However, these claims remain disputed and have not been independently verified.
Many analysts believe that the changing balance of power in the Middle East has significant implications for regional diplomacy. Although several Arab states continue to seek strategic autonomy, security realities have kept many of them closely aligned with the United States. During the conflict, Iran demonstrated its capability by launching strikes against American military installations, highlighting the growing reach of its missile and drone capabilities.
Given the close defence relationship between Iran and China, many military observers believe that Tehran continues to possess the capacity to target American and Israeli military, commercial, and technological interests if future hostilities arise. Consequently, many analysts believe that peace in the Middle East remains fragile.
With the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 and Israeli general elections expected in October 2026, many observers believe that the political outcomes in both countries could significantly influence future American and Israeli policies towards the region. Reports suggesting that all sides continue to prepare for possible future confrontations reinforce concerns that regional stability remains uncertain.
On the diplomatic front, the United States appears to be strengthening partnerships aimed at balancing both China and Iran. In this context, the Japanese Prime Minister’s remarks on Pakistani soil become easier to understand from a geopolitical perspective.
Despite these developments, Pakistan and Japan have historically enjoyed cordial bilateral relations. For decades, Tokyo has largely avoided taking sides in disputes between Pakistan and India. Japan remains one of Pakistan’s largest development partners, supporting major infrastructure, energy, disaster management, education, and grassroots socio-economic projects. Japanese assistance has included the construction of the Kohat Tunnel and funding for several bridges along the N-70 National Highway.
For these reasons, it would be premature to conclude that Pakistan-Japan relations are likely to deteriorate significantly in the near future.
The larger issue, however, is that India’s domestic politics increasingly influences its foreign policy. Critics argue that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) derives considerable political support from policies perceived as being hostile towards Pakistan and Muslims. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and leaders associated with the Hindutva movement are often viewed as promoting this ideological direction.
In contrast, Pakistan has repeatedly stated that it seeks peace, dialogue, and regional stability. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has consistently called for constructive dialogue between Pakistan and India to resolve outstanding disputes through peaceful means.
Pakistan also alleges that India supports militant groups such as the TTP and the BLA to destabilize the country. India has consistently rejected these allegations. The recent loss of dozens of security personnel in Balochistan has further intensified tensions between the two neighbours.
History repeatedly reminds us that while friends may change, neighbours cannot. It is therefore time for the leadership of both countries to adopt more pragmatic domestic and foreign policies that promote lasting peace, stability, and prosperity across South Asia.
